Today I’m going to make like a real pundit and do an entry on cruise control. That’s right: no heavy lifting here. It’s…Oscar predictions!

Following are my guesses based on my close reading of such industry rags as Variety and Entertainment Weekly, my obsessive perusal of alt.gossip.showbiz, and everything I’ve learned about the Biz.

And if I’m wrong—who cares? I’m a mother of two living in the ‘burbs, I have no special “in.” Get over it.

BEST PICTURE

• Chicago
• Gangs of New York
• The Hours
• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• The Pianist

Okay, everything I’ve heard said that Chicago is it this year. It’s a safe choice—plus, it’s a musical, and Hollywood would love to herald the return of the live-action musical. Nobody seems to have liked Gangs of New York much. Everybody was depressed by The Hours. The Lord of the Rings will sweep next year’s Oscars. And the Academy’s already honored Schindler’s List, so do we really need The Pianist? No.

Winner: Chicago

DIRECTOR

• Rob Marshall, Chicago
• Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
• Stephen Daldry, The Hours
• Roman Polanski, The Pianist
• Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her

See: Best Picture. Rob Marshall is way ahead of the pack. The Academy knows it owes Martin Scorsese one, but maybe not this time. It figures that nominating Roman Polanski is going far enough in the forgiveness category. I haven’t heard Stephen Daldry or Pedro Almodovar’s names.

Winner: Rob Marshall

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Adrien Brody, The Pianist
• Nicholas Cage, Adaptation
• Michael Caine, The Quiet American
• Daniel Day Lewis, Gangs of New York
• Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

Hmmm. The obvious answer here is Jack Nicholson, except he’s already got 3 Oscars, does the Academy really want to give him another? (I hope you haven’t been thinking that Oscars are decided on by merit.) Adrien Brody is supposed to be quite good in The Pianist, as is Daniel Day Lewis in Gangs. (But that moustache…what’s up with the moustache?) I hope to God Nicolas Cage doesn’t win, but then I’m biased against Adaptation.

Sure, Michael Caine has two Supporting Actor statuettes, but who remembers the Supporting Actors? I think the Academy’s love for one of its own will come through here. Added bonus: he’s British! Plus: the chance to make a (slight) political statement!

Winner: Michael Caine

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Salma Hayek, Frida
• Nicole Kidman, The Hours
• Diane Lane, Unfaithful
• Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
• Renee Zellweger, Chicago

Compare the five ladies nominated here with the five guys for Best Actor. Yes, you’ve guessed it: to be nominated for Best Actress, you not only have to be talented, you have to be a complete and utter babe. I’ve heard all these performances were terrific. But when considering the outside factors—the Previous Performances Quotient, the Tabloid Quotient, the Woman Succeeding Outside Of The Ex-husband’s Shadow Quotient—the winner is pretty clear.

Winner: Nicole Kidman

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Chris Cooper, Adaptation
• Ed Harris, The Hours
• Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
• John C. Reilly, Chicago
• Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can

I can never guess Best Supporting Actor. I don’t think there’s a year I’ve gotten it right. Usually this is the category the Academy uses to reward guys who’ve been around forever and need some love. Which means it could be any of the nominees, but I’m going to guess Christopher Walken, who’s the sentimental choice.

Winner: Christopher Walken. Runner-up: Ed Harris.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
• Julianne Moore, The Hours
• Queen Latifah, Chicago
• Meryl Streep, Adaptation
• Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Okay, the logical answer here is Julianne Moore, because a)she’s due and b)every time someone is nominated in both the lead and supporting categories they always win the supporting. Queen Latifah would be an interesting choice, but there’s no way. Catherine Zeta-Jones? There would be riots. Meryl Streep and Kathy Bates? Hey, Best Supporting Actress is all about the babe factor.

Winner: Julianne Moore

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
• Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan, Gangs of New York
• Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding
• Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
• Carlos Cuaron and Alfonso Cuaron, Y Tu Mama Tambien

The obvious choice here is a courtesy Oscar for My Big Fat Greek Wedding (its only nomination). The Academy loves underdog stories; the Academy loves movies that made over $200 million. Also, MBFGW was produced by Mrs. Tom Hanks, and everybody loves Tom Hanks.

Winner: Nia Vardalos

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz and Paul Weitz, About a Boy
• Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation
• Bill Condon, Chicago
• David Hare, The Hours
• Ronald Harwood, The Pianist

Of the two movies I’ve seen out of these, About A Boy was wonderful and Adaptation wasn’t. I think this category will go the way it has most years—”I dunno. What are you voting for?”—and will be part of the Chicago wins.

Winner: Bill Condon. Possible surprise choice: Charlie Kaufman. Donald Kaufman, by the way, doesn’t exist and never has.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• El Crimen del Padre Amaro (Mexico)
• Hero (China)
• The Man Without a Past (Finland)
• Nowhere in Africa (Germany)
• Zus and Zo (The Netherlands)

Damn. No City of God?

Winner: Haven’t a clue. Eeny meeny miney mo: El Crimen del Padre Amaro, because it sort of seems trendy.

ANIMATED FEATURE

• Ice Age
• Lilo and Stitch
• Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
• Spirited Away
• Treasure Planet

You know the Academy’s thinking, “We make a whole damn category to please Michael Eisner, and these are their entries?”

Winner: Spirited Away

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Bowling for Columbine
• Daughter From Danang
• Prisoner of Paradise
• Spellbound
• Winged Migration

Every year the show gets slicker and less political. I bet this is the spot for the Academy makes its “liberal” statement.

Winner: Bowling for Columbine

So, we’ve been seeing more movies of late — Friday afternoon “date night” and all. And, of course, we’ve been seeing more trailers. Forthwith:

View From The Top: Gwyneth Paltrow stars as a “Coffee, Tea, or Me?” era stewardess — that’s stewardess, not flight attendant, and if I have to explain the difference to you, I’ll…cry, or something — in what appears to be an exceedingly unfunny comedy that has Mike Myers as the “wacky” stewardess trainer. With a crossed eye. What’s worse is that the trailer has the whole movie in it.

How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days: When I saw the trailer for this insanely terrible looking romantic comedy, I was reminded of Darin’s comment about a billboard for Eight Heads In A Duffel Bag: “That’s not a movie, that’s a pitch.” Better was the one-liner I read (in Variety, I think): “‘How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days’ will soon be known in the trade as ‘How Not to Write a Romantic Comedy.'” Sounds about right. And that’s just from the trailer.

Bringing Down The House: Steve Martin is the uptight white guy! Queen Latifah is the earthy black woman! Steve has lost his way in life, but Latifah helps him find his soul brother side! Wackiness ensues, including the never-seen-before uptight-white-guy-acts-jive scene. Rated: Oh. My. God. This is one of those films that pays for Martin to write theatre pieces, am I right?

It Runs In The Family: Kirk Douglas and Michael Douglas play (what else?) father and son in a family comedy. Or family drama, I’m not sure which. Also not sure of the target market.

Anger Management: Adam Sandler plays the incredibly calm guy mistakenly sentenced to anger management therapy. Jack Nicholson is his scenery-chewing therapist who wants to teach him how to get angry, not stop getting angry. Jack moves into Adam’s apartment. Wackiness ensues.

The subject of Adaptation came up in the comments section of my post about Catch Me If You Can, so without further ado—well, actually a week of ado, but who’s counting?—here are my deathless thoughts on Adaptation.

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Darin and I have not been having an easy time of it, movie-wise, since Sophia was born. It’s been a combination of not having enough time, having different priorities, and living through one of the suckiest periods in American cinema.

What’s been strange is that a lot of the movies we’ve seen have been critically acclaimed and we’ve still hated them. In the middle of Amélie Darin turned to me and said, “Do you think we’re just out of the habit of watching movies?” And he asked at almost the exact moment I was thinking, “Holy crap, this is the biggest movie in French history?” (Call me wacky, but I don’t enjoy movies that find stalkers “fun.” And the prologue, which explained how Amélie got to be the way she was, was so deeply unpleasant for me I was simply predisposed to dislike the rest of the movie.)

Every review we’d heard about Adaptation had been so overwhelmingly positive. You’d think we’d have learned our lesson on believing reviews after Mulholland Drive (Hated it! And yes, I understood it just fine—I still thought it was pretentious artistic crap), Amélie, Sexy Beast, AI: Artificial Intelligence (I want the 18 hours of my life that movie sucked away back), or Donnie Darko (well, actually, Darin saw that one without me, but I’ll take his word for it).

You’d think we’d learn our lesson, but you’d be so wrong.
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